A lot of people have asked me this year, "What is going on in Twin Creeks?" Homes seem to be sitting on the market longer, beautiful homes, priced correctly are sitting on the market, what gives?
Well, after watching Twin Creeks sales since the neighborhood started in 1994, February always seems to be out "indicator" month. If we have a good showing month in February, we usually have a good spring and summer selling season. February, 2006, showings really picked up over January. February, 2007, showings picked up, but now what we usually see in February. Why does February seem so important? My theory is, that is when the relocation buyers come to Dallas to do their "look/see" trip and/or to interview for a position here, so they can move their family at the end of the school year. My statistics over the years, have consistently showed, that 70% - 80% of the buyers that move to Twin Creeks are relocation buyers. If relocation buyers are moving to town, sales are usually god, if they are not, like the selling season after Sept 11th, sales are usually not so good.
So, is it just less relocation buyers this year? No, not entirely. I think there are less relocation buyers in the marketplace this year, but I also think that many of those relocation bueyrs are purchasing new construction. Around April or May this year, the builders really started inceasing their discounts on their houses, because they were not hitting their nunmbers. There was one house, in Twin Creeks 3 this year, that the builder would take $90,000 off of the listed price, and throw in plantation shutters! How can a preowned home compete?
All summer long, I have been telling my sellers that showings are down by about 30% over this same time last year, and what we usually expect to see during the spring and summer selling seasons. A couple of weeks ago, I went ont the MLS, to see how our sales are holding up. From January 1st to September 4th, 2007, there have been 99 preowned sales in Twin Creeks. From January 1st to September 4th, S2006, there were 134 preowned sales in Twin Creeks. That is a 27% drop from 2006! So, my estimate of 30% less buyers in the marketplace was pretty accurate.
What to expect for the rest of 2007? I don't know! Now, we also have the bad news from the mortgage industry. This is going to affect sellers because the lenders are now tightening up on their guidelines for qualifying. This will also give us a few less buyers. But, on a positive note, since school started, I have put 5 homes under contract in Twin Creeks! Our market is usually dead after school starts for a month or two, but we still have buyers out there! So, there is good news and bad news for the rest of this year, and my crystal ball is not working right now. When I get it fixed, I will let you know!
To find out the Real Scoop on Twin Creeks, from someone that works it every day, log on to my Twin Creeks Blog. Go to michellesellsdallas.com, click on "Michelle's Blog", or go to http://mmjtwincreeks.blogspot.com/.
